Millions of Americans could become eligible for compulsory military service if the United States ever reinstates the draft during a major global conflict.
With concerns about a potential World War 3 continuing to attract attention, questions are being raised about which citizens would be called upon first if the country needed additional troops.
The renewed discussion comes as the Pentagon develops an ambitious emergency preparedness initiative known as FORTRESS, designed to keep American military installations operating during a major disruption.
At the same time, the US is preparing to change the way eligible men are registered with the Selective Service System, with automatic registration expected to begin in December 2026.
Although neither development means a draft has been activated, existing government procedures provide an indication of who would receive the first call-up notices if Congress authorised compulsory military service.
Who would be drafted first if World War 3 happened?
Under the current Selective Service framework, men turning 20 during the calendar year of a military draft would generally be the first age group considered through the draft lottery.
That means if a draft were activated in 2026, men born in 2006 would be in the initial age-based lottery group.
However, not every man in that group would automatically be required to serve.
A nationally conducted lottery would determine the order in which eligible individuals received instructions to report for further evaluation.
The process uses randomly selected birthdays to establish the sequence of potential call-ups.
If additional personnel were required, the Selective Service System's published framework identifies subsequent age groups in the following order:
These are the age-based lottery priorities described by the Selective Service System. Certain volunteers and previously processed registrants have separate priorities under federal regulations.
The system does not mean that everyone in an age group would be inducted into the military.
How would the US military draft lottery work?
The United States last used compulsory military service during the Vietnam War era, with draft inductions ending in 1973.
During the conflict, criticism of the existing selection system led to the introduction of a national lottery.
The first lottery, conducted in December 1969, used randomly drawn birth dates to determine the order in which eligible men would be considered for service.
A similar random selection system remains central to modern Selective Service contingency planning.
If a new draft were authorised, individuals selected through the lottery would receive instructions to report for evaluation.
They would then undergo assessments covering physical fitness, mental health and other eligibility requirements.
Individuals could also make claims for applicable exemptions, postponements or deferments.
Being selected in the lottery would therefore not necessarily mean someone would be sent into military service.
What is the Pentagon's reported 'doomsday plan'?
The Pentagon is developing a resilience initiative known as FORTRESS America, intended to ensure that military bases can continue functioning during severe disruptions to essential infrastructure.
According to reporting by Fox News Digital on October 25, internal planning documents describe a proposed standard under which major US military installations would be able to sustain essential operations independently for at least 90 days.
The initiative focuses on protecting military operations from interruptions to electricity, water, fuel, communications and critical supply chains.
Potential measures include independent power generation, battery storage, microgrids and additional reserves of essential materials.
The Pentagon is also considering ways to strengthen domestic manufacturing capacity and reduce dependence on vulnerable supply networks.
The 90-day planning goal was reported from internal documents, rather than announced as a completed requirement across every military installation.
On October 30, senior Pentagon official Dale Marks discussed goals for military bases to operate without outside electricity for periods of 30, 60 or even 90 days.
He also described plans for 90-day reserves of certain critical military supplies.
FORTRESS is a military preparedness initiative, not an announcement that civilian conscription is beginning.
Why is the Pentagon preparing for major disruptions?
Modern military installations depend on many of the same essential services used by civilian communities.
Electricity, water, communications networks and transportation systems all play important roles in keeping military operations functioning.
A major international conflict, cyberattack or infrastructure emergency could disrupt those services.
By developing independent systems and emergency reserves, the Pentagon hopes to reduce the risk of military bases becoming unable to operate during a crisis.
The initiative also reflects concerns about the vulnerability of global supply chains and the need to maintain access to fuel, ammunition and replacement equipment.
However, preparing for a possible emergency does not establish that the government expects a world war to begin imminently.
Could Donald Trump bring back the military draft?
President Donald Trump's administration has faced renewed questions about military preparedness amid tensions involving Iran and other international security concerns.
The Mirror US reported on October 29 that American officials had discussed the possibility of additional military operations involving Iran.
However, the decision to restart compulsory military service would not rest with the president alone.
Under the current legal framework, a return to the draft would require congressional authorisation.
The United States currently operates an all-volunteer military, and there is no active military draft.
Any future move towards conscription would therefore require significant legal and administrative steps.
How many Americans could potentially be eligible?
According to The Mirror US, strategic adviser Christopher Lee estimated that approximately 18 million men could fall within the relevant age range for a potential draft.
Lee cited figures from the Selective Service System indicating that around 15 million eligible men were registered, with a further proportion not registered.
He explained that even if compulsory military service returned, the number of people actually inducted could be substantially smaller than the total eligible population.
The distinction is important because registration does not mean that someone will necessarily be called upon to serve.
Actual military personnel requirements would depend on the circumstances of a conflict, the available volunteer force and decisions made by the federal government.
What did the military expert say about the likelihood of a draft?
Speaking to The Mirror US, Christopher Lee argued that a draft would be unlikely in a conflict primarily fought through naval and air operations.
He suggested that a military confrontation involving Iran would not necessarily create a requirement for large numbers of additional ground troops.
Lee also pointed to the Vietnam War as an example of the difference between the total number of people eligible for conscription and the number ultimately drafted.
He noted that approximately 1.8 million men were drafted during the Vietnam War era over several years.
His assessment was that a large eligible population should not be confused with an expectation that millions of people would actually enter military service.
That assessment is an expert opinion rather than a guarantee about how the United States would respond to a future conflict.
What major change to military draft registration is coming?
The United States is also preparing to introduce automatic Selective Service registration for eligible men.
The change, expected to begin in December 2026, would replace much of the existing requirement for individuals to complete registration themselves.
Under the planned arrangements, the Selective Service System would use authorised government records to identify and register eligible individuals.
The objective is to improve registration compliance and reduce the administrative costs associated with reminding people to sign up.
Most male US citizens and many male immigrants aged 18 to 25 are subject to Selective Service registration requirements.
The registration change does not expand the draft into an active military conscription programme.
Instead, it changes how the government maintains information about individuals who could potentially be considered if a draft were authorised in the future.
Would women be drafted if World War 3 began?
Under existing US Selective Service registration requirements, women are not required to register.
The current draft contingency framework therefore focuses on eligible men.
Women can serve voluntarily in the US military, including in combat roles for which they qualify.
Any proposal to expand compulsory registration or conscription requirements would involve changes to existing law.
There has been no announcement that the planned December registration changes will introduce compulsory registration for women.
Could someone avoid being drafted for medical or personal reasons?
If a future draft were authorised, individuals selected through the lottery would undergo assessments before any decision about induction.
Medical conditions, fitness requirements and other eligibility criteria could affect whether someone was accepted for service.
The Selective Service System also has procedures for considering certain exemptions, postponements and deferments.
These can include qualifying hardship circumstances and claims involving conscientious objection.
However, eligibility would depend on the applicable rules and the facts of an individual's situation.
It would be incorrect to assume that everyone receiving a call-up notice would automatically be required to enter the armed forces.
Is World War 3 about to happen?
There is no confirmed announcement that a third world war is imminent or that the United States has activated compulsory military service.
The Pentagon's FORTRESS initiative concerns military resilience and continuity planning.
The Selective Service registration overhaul concerns how eligible individuals are recorded in an existing federal system.
Neither development independently authorises a military draft.
Nevertheless, the combination of international tensions, emergency preparedness measures and changes to registration procedures has renewed public interest in what would happen if the United States ever needed to mobilise additional troops.
For now, the country continues to rely on its all-volunteer military, while the Selective Service System maintains a framework that could be activated only following the necessary legal authorisation.
Sources: The Mirror US, Christopher Sharp, October 29, 2026; US Selective Service System, Return to Draft guidance and sequence of events; 32 CFR §1624.4; Fox News Digital, October 25, 2026; Breaking Defense, October 30, 2026.
