A former US fighter pilot who now flies commercial aircraft has shared a theory about what may have caused a Learjet to plunge from approximately 35,000 feet before crashing into a Florida neighbourhood, killing all nine people on board.
The Bombardier Learjet 60 was travelling from Texas to the Bahamas on Sunday, November 1, when the aircraft suddenly entered a rapid descent over South Florida.
Within moments, the private jet struck the ground in Greenacres, Palm Beach County, leaving an enormous crater and triggering a fireball.
Investigators from the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) are examining the circumstances surrounding the disaster, including weather conditions, aircraft systems and evidence of structural damage before impact.
Now, an experienced aviator who operates the YouTube channel Max Afterburner has offered his interpretation of the aircraft's final moments.
His analysis focuses on the interaction between severe weather, aircraft speed and a potentially dangerous aerodynamic phenomenon.
What is the former fighter pilot's theory about the Learjet crash?
The pilot, identified as Ryan, believes the Learjet may have encountered the core of a powerful thunderstorm while travelling at approximately 35,000 feet.
He suggested that rapidly developing weather conditions could have caused the aircraft to lose control, potentially setting off a chain of events that the crew was unable to reverse.
His theory also considers the possibility of Mach tuck, an aerodynamic phenomenon that can cause an aircraft's nose to pitch downward as it approaches certain high-speed flight conditions.
Ryan examined weather radar information alongside the aircraft's reported flight path and communications with air traffic control.
He suggested that the jet appeared to have entered an area of intense storm activity shortly before the emergency began.
However, his explanation remains an independent assessment rather than an official determination of the crash's cause.
What did the pilot say about the weather?
In his analysis, Ryan warned that flying above powerful thunderstorms can be dangerous because storm clouds can develop vertically at extraordinary speeds.
He said aviation professionals are taught to avoid attempting to fly directly over rapidly developing storm systems.
Drawing on his own flying experience, he described witnessing storm clouds increase in height by thousands of feet within seconds.
Such conditions can create significant risks for aircraft, including turbulence, hail, ice and powerful vertical air movements.
According to Ryan, the Learjet's reported position suggested it may have encountered a particularly hazardous part of the weather system.
He also highlighted the aircraft's reported exposure to icing conditions, noting that the outside temperature at cruising altitude was approximately minus 47 degrees Celsius.
Ryan suggested that ice crystals or other forms of icing could potentially interfere with aircraft sensors, including those used to measure airspeed.
However, there is no confirmed evidence that the Learjet's airspeed sensors malfunctioned.
What happened during the aircraft's final communications?
According to Ryan's examination of the available recordings, the Learjet's crew initially reported moderate turbulence and light clear icing.
The pilots reportedly indicated that the conditions were manageable.
The co-pilot subsequently requested permission to climb from approximately 35,000 feet to 37,000 feet after the aircraft encountered precipitation.
Ryan suggested that the requested climb might have been an attempt to escape deteriorating weather conditions.
However, the crew's precise reasoning has not been established.
Less than 30 seconds after the crew reportedly described the icing as manageable, an emergency was declared.
The aircraft then began descending rapidly, with reported descent rates reaching thousands of feet per minute.
The speed and severity of the descent have become central questions in the ongoing investigation.
What is Mach tuck and how could it affect a Learjet?
Mach tuck is an aerodynamic effect associated with high-speed flight, particularly when an aircraft approaches the transonic range.
As an aircraft accelerates, airflow over portions of its wings can reach the speed of sound even when the aircraft itself is travelling below Mach 1.
This can create shock waves that alter the distribution of aerodynamic forces acting on the aircraft.
Under certain conditions, those changes can produce a nose-down pitching tendency.
Ryan explained that the Learjet 60 has a maximum operating Mach number of approximately Mach 0.81.
He suggested that if the aircraft exceeded its operating limits during the descent, high-speed aerodynamic effects could have made recovery more difficult.
In his assessment, a nose-down tendency could potentially contribute to further acceleration, creating a dangerous situation for the pilots.
However, aircraft design incorporates stability characteristics and operating limitations intended to manage high-speed flight behaviour.
Mach tuck is not an inevitable consequence of exceeding a particular speed, and investigators have not established that it occurred during this accident.
Did the Learjet begin breaking apart before it crashed?
Federal investigators have confirmed that important parts of the aircraft separated before ground impact.
During an NTSB briefing, officials revealed that most of the Learjet's left elevator had been recovered in three pieces between approximately 1.3 and 3.8 miles from the main crash site.
The elevator is a movable surface on the aircraft's tail that helps pilots control pitch.
Its separation could have affected the aircraft's handling, depending on when the damage occurred and the conditions at the time.
However, investigators have not yet determined whether the component's loss contributed to the initial loss of control or resulted from the extreme forces experienced during the descent.
That distinction is critical to understanding the sequence of events.
How does the missing tail component affect the pilot's theory?
Ryan described the discovery of separated aircraft components as particularly important.
He suggested that if part of the tail failed before the aircraft entered its steep dive, the structural damage itself could have triggered the loss of control.
In that scenario, any subsequent high-speed aerodynamic effects might have been secondary to the original failure.
Alternatively, if the aircraft first lost control because of severe weather or another factor, the tail components may have separated after the jet accelerated beyond its structural limits.
Ryan therefore presented several possible sequences rather than identifying one definitive cause.
He suggested that Mach tuck, if involved, may have worsened an emergency that had already begun rather than initiating it.
Investigators will need to examine the recovered wreckage and other evidence to determine which sequence, if any, is supported.
Who was on board the Learjet?
The crash killed seven passengers and two crew members.
Among the passengers were technology entrepreneur Adam Robinson, his wife Helen Sharp and their two young children, Emma and Charlie.
The aircraft was also carrying the family's nanny and two close friends.
The flight crew consisted of captain Jeffrey Gregory, 55, and co-pilot Nathalia Gadelha Filgueiras, 20.
The aircraft had departed Austin, Texas, and was travelling towards the Bahamas when the emergency developed.
The crash also forced the evacuation of hundreds of residents near the impact site, although no deaths were reported on the ground.
What are investigators examining now?
The NTSB is continuing to gather evidence to establish what happened during the Learjet's final flight.
Investigators are expected to examine the recovered tail components, aircraft maintenance history, crew qualifications and available weather information.
They will also review flight data and communications to reconstruct the sequence of events leading to the rapid descent.
One of the central questions is whether the aircraft experienced a loss of control before structural components separated or whether a structural failure contributed to the emergency.
The role of icing, turbulence and high-speed aerodynamic effects will also need to be assessed.
A preliminary factual report is expected within approximately a month of the accident, while the full investigation could take a year or longer.
For now, Ryan's analysis offers one possible explanation for the tragedy, but it remains a theory.
Until investigators complete their examination, the cause of the crash and the sequence of events that led to the loss of all nine people on board remain undetermined.
